Application of interval econometrics for crude oil price forecasting

The classical econometrics models and forecasting methods based on point data have poor forecasting quality because those models might neglect the important interval information of the price movement.A new interval method based on interval computing and interval econometrics to predict crude oil prices is applied.Compared with the confidence interval forecasts based AR-GARCH model,the interval econometrics method yields more accuracy ratio and much less forecast error.This study validates the interval econometrics method,and uncovers the important application to economic issues.