APPLYING PORTFOLIO THEORY TO EU ELECTRICITY PLANNING AND POLICY-MAKING

This study introduces mean-variance portfolio theory and evaluates its potential application to the development of efficient (optimal) European Union (EU-15) generating portfolios that enhance energy security and diversification objectives. The analysis extends to European countries the previous work done by Awerbuch in the US, and applies a significantly more detailed portfolio model that reflects the risk of the relevant generating cost streams: fuel, operation and maintenance and construction period costs. It illustrates the portfolio effects of different generating mixes. The study offers preliminary findings on the effects of including more renewable energy sources in the typical EU portfolio mix and suggests interesting directions for further study. The study arises from the perception that these standard, finance-oriented analyses may offer valuable enhancements to energy planning, and concepts of energy security and diversity. Clearly the combination of better portfolio construction and more accurate pricing should lead to more optimal decisions in the round. This study, therefore, represents an effort to complement traditional approaches and point researchers and planners into new territory. The results generally indicate that the existing and projected EU generating mixes are sub optimal - though slightly - from a risk-return perspective, which implies that feasible portfolios with lower cost and risk exist. These can be developed by adjusting the conventional mix and by including larger shares of wind or similar renewable technologies. The results of the portfolio analysis suggest that fixed cost technologies such as renewables must be a part of any efficient generating portfolio. Our assessment of all technologies is limited to risk and cost measures, although other benefits, including low externality costs and sustainability, are often cited for renewables.