Psychiatric Prognosis Following Index Suicide Attempts in Early Adolescents

Importance The rates of suicide and suicide attempts are rising precipitously among early adolescents aged 10 to 14 years in the US. While suicide attempts in this age group are more common and associated with lower lethality than in older age groups, very little is known about these individuals’ long-term social and psychiatric outcomes. Objectives To examine the adult outcomes of individuals making index suicide attempts that came to medical attention between the ages of 10 and 14 years. Design, Setting, and Participants This population-based cohort constitutes a subsample (n = 164) of a previously reported retrospective-prospective study examining individuals who made index suicide attempts during a 22-year period (1986-2007) in Olmsted County, Minnesota. Main Outcomes and Measures To collect outcome measures, the medical records of all individuals were queried until March 31, 2023, comprising up to 36 years of follow-up data after the index attempt. Measures included current social, psychiatric, and mortality outcomes as well as lifetime measures of psychiatric hospitalizations and repeat suicide attempts. K-means clustering generated adult groupings based on aggregates of psychiatric hospitalizations and repeat attempts. Multivariable logistic regression identified index attempt factors associated with poor adult outcomes. Results Of 164 individuals aged 10 to 14 years who made index attempts (128 [78.0%] female; mean [SD] age at index attempt, 13.7 [1.1] years), 3 (1.8%) died on the index attempt. In the follow-up period, no individuals died by suicide. K-means clustering generated a 2-group solution reflecting low (120 [80%]) and high (30 [20%]) rates of adult psychopathology. While a minority of the sample belonged to the high-rate group, characterized by multiple repeat attempts and hospitalizations, the majority had favorable social indicators and fewer reattempts and hospitalizations. Poor adult outcomes were associated with being male (odds ratio, 2.44; 95% CI, 1.00-5.80; P = .04) and having a psychiatric diagnosis prior to the index attempt (odds ratio, 3.27; 95% CI, 1.42-8.07; P = .007). Conclusions and Relevance In this sample of early adolescents with index suicide attempts followed into adulthood, all who died by suicide did so on the index attempt. While a small number of individuals went on to develop chronic severe psychopathology, the majority demonstrated little evidence of long-term impairment. Given this discrepancy, future studies should focus on using risk stratification after index attempts to direct postvention resources toward adolescents more susceptible to poor outcomes.