The effect of doll blind box uncertainty on consumers’ irrational consumption behavior: the role of instant gratification, Gambler’s fallacy, and perceived scarcity

BACKGROUND: The uncertainty associated with doll blind boxes has sparked a consumer frenzy in China. However, it remains unclear how the allure of uncertain rewards influences the irrational consumption behavior of blind box consumers. This study aimed to elucidate the internal mechanisms underlying this process. Specifically, this study investigated the relationships among perceived uncertainty, gambler's fallacy, instant gratification, perceived scarcity, and irrational consumption behavior. METHODS: 434 Online questionnaires were distributed to Chinese doll blind box consumers. This study examines the impact of perceived uncertainty on consumers' irrational consumption behavior by employing the Stimulus-Organism-Response theory and constructing a mechanism model. The analysis was conducted using PLS-SEM in SmartPLS 4.0. RESULTS: Perceived uncertainty positively affected instant gratification and gambler's fallacies. Gambler's fallacy and instant gratification significantly mediate between perceived uncertainty and irrational consumption behavior. Moreover, perceived scarcity positively moderated the relationship between gambler's fallacy and irrational consumption behavior. As perceived scarcity increased among blind box consumers, cognitive bias resulting from gambler's fallacy more significantly influenced the consumers to engage in irrational consumption behavior. CONCLUSIONS: This study clarified the psychological mechanisms underlying irrational consumption behavior among blind box consumers. Moreover, it provides specific suggestions for blind box consumer, product stakeholders and policymakers to better advocate rational consumption behavior.