Multi-scaled green infrastructure optimization: Spatial projections and assessment for dynamic planning and design

As urbanization pressures continue to intensify globally, the implementation of green infrastructure (GI) has emerged as a critical intervention for enhancing the resilience of our communities. However, literature exploring the integration of GI planning and design within the complex mechanisms of urban systems is limited. This study posits that the sensible deployment of GI should consider place-based supply along with locational demand. This research proposes a novel and integrated approach to GI planning that responds to evolving urban contexts and encompasses the operational mechanisms of services at multiple scales. We first assess the spatial mismatch between GI service supply and demand using standard spatial analytical approaches. We then project scenario-based futures to highlight future mismatch or exacerbated mismatch issues. Our results find that GI services are a significant growth driver that impacts development patterns, and the results also reveal a potential spatial shift in the service mismatches in the future. Our approach involves a dynamic spatial simulation of urban growth and the quantification of GI services over space and time. The ultimate goal is to provide reliable place-based information on optimal GI locations for planning and design purposes. We hope that this study will make a meaningful contribution to the broader discourse surrounding the resilience of urban places and the role of GI.