Exploring the evolution and trade-off within a socio-ecological system in karst regions: A case study of Huanjiang County, China

Economic development, food security, and ecological preservation are important issues encountered by karst regions. Faced with complex natural and social dynamics, we attempted to explore how interdependence within socio-ecological system (SES) shaped sustainability in this region. A SES framework was constructed and three scenarios were predesigned: economic priority scenario, food security scenario, and ecological protection scenario. The System Dynamics model was used to simulate and forecast the evolution across various scenarios within the SES from 2005 to 2035. Through the Production-Possibility Frontiers in combined scenarios, trade-off potential was identified and quantified. The results showed that the decoupling between social and ecological subsystems can be weaken in economic priority scenario, while coupling between them can be strengthen in food security scenario and ecological protection scenario. Within the SES, combined scenario analyses further suggest that the rocky desertification rate and the urban-rural income ratio exhibit the least trade-off potential and intensity in combined economic priority scenario and ecological protection scenario, and the Soil Conservation and Food Supply demonstrate the least trade-off potential and intensity in combined economic priority scenario and food security scenario. We can conclude the ecological engineering plays a significant role in alleviating trade-offs within the SES, but the effectiveness is limited. In light of intertwined socio-ecological challenges, combining ecological engineering with adaptive adjustments is a crucial strategy to enhance SES resilience and promote sustainable development in the South China Karst.