Demand Modeling and Operations Optimization for Advanced Regional Air Mobility

View Video Presentation: https://doi.org/10.2514/6.2021-3179.vid Commuter operations refer to the transportation of passengers on small capacity aircraft over short distances. These services have historically been plagued by high operating costs, yielding marginally profitable operations. The recent convergence of new technologies in autonomy and electric propulsion brings a step change in aircraft operating efficiency which may significantly improve the economics and environmental footprint of these vehicles. The next challenge is to optimize operations to match the demand and best utilize these assets. To do so, forecasting the demand for these new services is critical. First, we develop a demand model based on an empirically-calibrated generalized cost of travel combined with a multinomial logit model. Next, we investigate the design of sustainable and profitable regional air mobility operations by optimizing the network, schedule, and assignment of aircraft to flights. We develop a novel half-leg half-itinerary mixed-integer linear program to solve the integrated flight scheduling and fleet assignment problem using a multi-objective hierarchical optimization balancing the maximization of operating profits and the minimization of operating emissions. This helps identify promising regional air mobility markets, assess their economical viability, and select an optimum fleet composition to best serve these markets. The proposed framework is implemented in the United States Northeast Corridor using a fleet of three small-gauge electrified aircraft ranging in size from 9 passengers to 48 passengers. Several what-if scenarios are investigated with respect to the battery technology, the relative importance of profit and carbon emission objectives, and the network topology to identify their impact on the operations in terms of number of profitable routes, number of airports served, number of passengers carried, operating profits and operating emissions. Results highlight a significant potential for profitable regional air mobility services that will dramatically improve the connectivity and reach of rural and under-served communities, provided efficient and environmentally friendly aircraft are used.