The role of climate change in shaping the distribution patterns of Hylurgus ligniperda and its key natural enemies

Abstract BACKGROUND Accurate knowledge of the spatial distribution of invasive alien species is crucial for effective prevention, management, and ecological sustainability. Hylurgus ligniperda , a major forest pest native to Europe, has spread globally via wood packaging and logs, yet predictive studies investigating both this pest and its natural enemies remain scarce. This study aimed to predict the potential geographic distributions of H. ligniperda and its three key natural enemies— Platysoma lineare , Thanasimus formicarius and Platysoma oblongum —and to assess their ecological niche overlaps under current and future climate scenarios. RESULTS Using the Biomod2 ensemble model, we identified overlapping distributions mainly in Europe and North America. Niche shifts in invaded areas were shown to increase the global invasion risk. In the future, the suitable habitat for H. ligniperda will remain relatively stable, whereas the highly suitable habitat for this species will decline. The suitable habitat for P. lineare will gradually shrink, whereas that for P. oblongum will first expand and then shrink. The suitable habitat for T. formicarius will expand overall, whereas the highly suitable habitat for this species will shrink. Structural equation modeling revealed that precipitation significantly influences species distributions and their overlaps. Precipitation and temperature mediated both positive and negative interactions between H. ligniperda and its natural enemies, suggesting complex interspecific dynamics under climate change. CONCLUSION This study provides an integrated prediction of the distributions of H. ligniperda and its natural enemies under different climate change scenarios, revealing shifting interactions and distribution overlaps. These findings highlight the importance of strengthened quarantine and management strategies to mitigate the spread of H. ligniperda and support biological control under future climatic variation. © 2025 Society of Chemical Industry.