[Establishment of clinical features and prognostic scoring model in early-stage hepatitis B-related acute-on-chronic liver failure].

Objective: To explore the clinical characteristics and establish a corresponding prognostic scoring model in patients with early-stage clinical features of hepatitis B-induced acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF). Methods: Clinical characteristics of 725 cases with hepatitis B-related acute-on-chronic hepatic dysfunction (HBV-ACHD) were retrospectively analyzed using Chinese group on the study of severe hepatitis B (COSSH). The independent risk factors associated with 90-day prognosis to establish a prognostic scoring model was analyzed by multivariate Cox regression, and was validated by 500 internal and 390 external HBV-ACHD patients. Results: Among 725 cases with HBV-ACHD, 76.8% were male, 96.8% had cirrhosis base,66.5% had complications of ascites, 4.1% had coagulation failure in respect to organ failure, and 9.2% had 90-day mortality rate. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that TBil, WBC and ALP were the best predictors of 90-day mortality rate in HBV-ACHD patients. The established scoring model was COSS-HACHADs = 0.75 × ln(WBC) + 0.57 × ln(TBil)-0.94 × ln(ALP) +10. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of subjects was significantly higher than MELD, MELD-Na, CTP and CLIF-C ADs(P < 0.05). An analysis of 500 and 390 cases of internal random selection group and external group had similar verified results. Conclusion: HBV-ACHD patients are a group of people with decompensated cirrhosis combined with small number of organ failure, and the 90-day mortality rate is 9.2%. COSSH-ACHDs have a higher predictive effect on HBV-ACHD patients' 90-day prognosis, and thus provide evidence-based medicine for early clinical diagnosis and treatment.目的： 探讨乙型肝炎相关慢加急性肝衰竭（HBV-ACLF）前期患者的临床特征，并建立相应的预后评分模型。 方法： 利用HBV-ACLF中国诊断标准研究（COSSH-ACLF）队列，回顾性分析725例乙型肝炎相关慢加急性肝功能障碍（HBV-ACHD）患者的临床特征，采用多因素COX回归分析90 d预后的相关独立危险因素并建立预后评分模型，并利用内部500例和外部390例HBV-ACHD患者进行验证。 结果： 在725例HBV-ACHD患者中，男性为主（76.8%），96.8%患者有肝硬化基础，并发症以腹水（66.5%）多见，器官衰竭以凝血功能衰竭（4.1%）为主，90 d病死率为9.2%。多因素COX回归分析得出，总胆红素（TBil）、白细胞计数（WBC）、碱性磷酸酶（ALP）是HBV-ACHD患者90 d病死率的最佳预测指标，并建立评分模型COSSH-ACHDs = 0.75×ln（WBC）+ 0.57×ln（TBil）- 0.94×ln（ALP）+10，其受试者工作特征曲线下面积（auROC）显著高于终末期肝病模型（MELD）、MELD-Na、CTP及CLIF-C ADs（P < 0.05），500例内部随机选择组和390例外部验证组均验证了类似结果。 结论： HBV-ACHD患者是一组以肝硬化失代偿为主、合并少量器官衰竭的人群，其90 d病死率为9.2%，COSSH-ACHDs具有更高的预测HBV-ACHD患者90 d预后的效能，为临床早期诊治提供循证医学依据。.