Statistical chromatic dispersion modeling for next-generation intra-data-center and optical access networks [Invited]

The evolution of 800GbE and 1.6TbE Ethernet drives the adoption of 200–400 Gb/s per-lane IM/DD transceivers. At symbol rates approaching 100 GBd and beyond, O-band chromatic dispersion (CD) requires careful characterization. This paper reviews the statistical CD modeling methodology developed by ITU-T SG15 and IEEE 802.3dj during 2023–2024. We explain the two-sided Gaussian model addressing multi-vendor manufacturing targets, the ITU-T look-up table from Monte Carlo simulation with eight fiber manufacturers, and the approximate representations provided in G.652 for wavelength fitting and scaling with link segmentation. We demonstrate application to 800GBASE-LR4, 1.6TBASE systems, and 200G-PON, addressing four-wave mixing mitigation through the XYYX polarization arrangement. This paradigm shift from worst-case to statistical design enables 99.99% link coverage with lower-cost IM/DD technology.