蒸散量
气候变化
环境科学
地表径流
土地利用
水资源
气候模式
分布(数学)
代表性浓度途径
土地利用、土地利用的变化和林业
水循环
气候学
地理
生态学
数学
生物
数学分析
地质学
作者
Dario Ruggiu,Salvatore Urru,Roberto Deidda,Francesco Viola
标识
DOI:10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10894
摘要
<p>The assessment of climate change and land use modifications effects on hydrological cycle is challenging. We propose an approach based on Budyko theory to investigate the relative importance of natural and anthropogenic drivers on water resources availability. As an example of application, the proposed approach is implemented in the island of Sardinia (Italy), which is affected by important processes of both climate and land use modifications. In details, the proposed methodology assumes the Fu&#8217;s equation to describe the mechanisms of water partitioning at regional scale and uses the probability distributions of annual runoff (Q) in a closed form. The latter is parametrized by considering simple long-term climatic info (namely first orders statistics of annual rainfall and potential evapotranspiration) and land use properties of basins.</p><p>In order to investigate the possible near future water availability of Sardinia, several climate and land use scenarios have been considered, referring to 2006-2050 and 2051-2100 periods. Climate scenarios have been generated considering fourteen bias corrected outputs of climatic models from EUROCORDEX&#8217;s project (RCP 8.5), while three land use scenarios have been created following the last century tendencies.</p><p>Results show that the distribution of annual runoff in Sardinia could be significantly affected by both climate and land use change. The near future distribution of Q generally displayed a decrease in mean and variance compared to the baseline. &#160;&#160;</p><p>The reduction of&#160; Q is more critical moving from 2006-2050 to 2051-2100 period, according with climatic trends, namely due to the reduction of annual rainfall and the increase of potential evapotranspiration. The effect of LU change on Q distribution is weaker than the climatic one, but not negligible.</p>
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