An Experimental Validation Test of Ecological Coexistence Theory to Forecast Extinction Under Rising Temperatures

Interactions between species pose considerable challenges for forecasting the response of ecological communities to global changes. Coexistence theory could address this challenge by defining the conditions species can or cannot persist alongside competitors. However, although coexistence theory is increasingly deployed for projections, these frameworks have rarely been subjected to critical multigenerational validation tests. Here, using a highly replicated mesocosm experiment, I directly test if the modern coexistence theory approach can predict time-to-extirpation in the face of rising temperatures within the context of competition from a heat-tolerant species. Competition hastened expiration and the modelled point of coexistence breakdown overlapped with mean observations under both steady temperature increases and with additional environmental stochasticity. That said, although the theory identified the interactive effect between the stressors, predictive precision was low even in this simplified system. Nonetheless, these results support the careful use of coexistence modelling for forecasts and understanding drivers of change.