Nonlinear effects of thermokarst lakes on peripheral vegetation greenness across the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau using stable isotopes and satellite detection

Thermokarst lakes (TLs) widespread in thawing permafrost can degrade vegetation through thermomechanical erosion and waterlogging. However, whether TLs change water sources and alleviate water stress for plants is unknown, and previous knowledge about regional TL effects on surrounding vegetation greenness is rare. Here, we synthesized field investigations, stable isotopes, and remote sensing images from an unmanned aerial vehicle and Sentinel-2 to determine the effects of over 160,000 TLs on their surrounding growing-season normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The results are as follows: 1) With the largest water source shifting from 0 to 10 cm soil water to lake water, TL-affected plants can grow better than TL-unaffected plants, which is associated with soil texture and the development stage of the lake. 2) Overall, the median affecting distances of TLs on surrounding surface moisture (tasseled cap wetness, TCW) and NDVI were 50 m with their 25th–75th percentiles of 40–70 m and 40–60 m, respectively; compared with the unaffected areas, TLs increased peripheral TCW but reduced NDVI with their median change rates of 19.84% and −10.42%, respectively. 3) However, the nonlinear response of NDVI to the TCW gradient was dominant, which was featured by a local peak NDVI due to the coexistence of the physical destruction and improved water availability, and both TCW and NDVI at the peak area were explicitly larger than those at the unaffected area. 4) Along southeast-northwest environmental gradients (topographic, climatic, and edaphic factors), the affected range and degradation ratio of NDVI were greater under drier climate, larger lake area, sand-richer soil, fewer soil nutrients, and worse vegetation type (e.g., alpine desert). Briefly, the net adverse consequence on NDVI suggests that TLs primarily represent permafrost-supported ecosystems deteriorating, but the clear nonlinear effects advance the knowledge of this landscape; additionally, these local vegetation changes can help interpret the regional greening/browning and promote the research on the biogeochemical interaction among TL, soil, and plants under climate warming and permafrost thawing.