Worldwide burden of metabolic risk‐related cardiovascular disease from 1990 to 2021, with projections to 2050: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Abstract Aims This study presents a detailed examination of specific metabolic risk factors for various types of cardiovascular disease (CVD) from 1990 to 2021, stratified by sex, age and socio‐demographic index (SDI) levels, and to predict the future trajectory up to 2050. Materials and Methods Data from the Global Health Data Exchange were utilized to estimate the burden of metabolic risk‐related CVD, including high low‐density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL‐c), high systolic blood pressure (SBP), high fasting plasma glucose (FPG), high body mass index (BMI) and kidney dysfunction, across different types of CVD. The study employed the age‐standardized death rate (ASDR)/crude death rate and its estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) to measure the burden, and a Bayesian age‐period‐cohort model (BAPC) to forecast future trends. Results Globally, in 2021, the ASDR for high SBP‐related CVD was 125.33 per 100 000 population, with the largest share attributed to ischaemic heart disease (IHD) (56.73) and ischaemic stroke (IS) (25.57). The ASDR for high BMI‐related CVD was 22.77 per 100 000 population, with the largest share attributed to IHD (11.71) and hypertensive heart disease (HHD) (7.21). The ASDR for high FPG‐related CVD was 26.85 per 100 000 population, with the largest share attributed to IHD (16.27) and IS (8.11). The ASDR for high LDL‐c‐related CVD was 43.67 per 100 000 population, including IHD (32.29) and IS (11.38). The ASDR for kidney dysfunction‐related CVD was 25.55 per 100 000 population, with the largest share also attributed to IHD (17.18) and IS (4.24). From 1990 to 2021, the EAPCs for high BMI‐related HHD, intracerebral haemorrhage, subarachnoid haemorrhage and atrial fibrillation/flutter, as well as high FPG‐related lower extremity peripheral arterial disease, increased. However, the EAPCs for most metabolic risk‐related CVD declined, with varying EAPCs across different risk factors, sexes, age groups and SDI levels. Projected increases in CVD deaths related to all metabolic risks are expected by 2050, with significant variations in ASDR trends. Conclusions This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the historical and projected burden of metabolic risk‐related CVD, highlighting the need for targeted interventions to mitigate the escalating challenges posed by these diseases and their impact on global health systems.