Guiding sustainable urban development via a multi-level ecological framework integrating natural and social indicators

Establishing a sustainable landscape pattern to cope with worsening ecological problems is an internationally recognized practice. However, previous studies have not considered the joint supply equilibrium of ecosystem services (ESs) and coupling with social systems. In this study, we propose an ecological security pattern framework composed of multi-level ecological elements, based on ESs, human impacts, and improved connectivity. The ordered weighted averaging decision model was used to analyze the four types of ESs specified by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and extract core patches. Based on potential corridors extracted by the minimum cumulative resistance model, ecological corridors were further classified by improved connectivity analysis coupled with the human modification index. The approach was tested using data from Dalian, Liaoning Province, China. The results show that the most service capabilities declined to varying degrees over the past 10 years. Forests, arable land, and grasslands had relatively high levels of comprehensive ecological services. Regulating services showed a significant decline in three or more land types. The principle of landscape ecology promotes the establishment of a buffer zone. In Dalian, the areas of the ecological core patch and buffer zone were 2,167.88 and 5,377.38 km2, respectively. The three levels of potential ecological corridors totaled 1079.78 km. The ecological elements and ESs assessment results obtained using the proposed method provide spatial guidance for ecological management, thereby ensuring the sustainable development of large cities.