A CECT-Based Radiomics Nomogram Predicts the Overall Survival of Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Surgical Resection

Objective: The primary objective of this study was to develop and validate a predictive nomogram that integrates radiomic features derived from contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CECT) images with clinical variables to predict overall survival (OS) in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after surgical resection. Methods: This retrospective study analyzed the preoperative enhanced CT images and clinical data of 202 patients with HCC who underwent surgical resection at the Affiliated Hospital of North Sichuan Medical College (Institution 1) from June 2017 to June 2021 and at Nanchong Central Hospital (Institution 2) from June 2020 to June 2022. Among these patients, 162 patients from Institution 1 were randomly divided into a training cohort (112 patients) and an internal validation cohort (50 patients) at a 7:3 ratio, whereas 40 patients from Institution 2 were assigned as an independent external validation cohort. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were performed to identify clinical risk factors associated with OS after HCC resection. Using 3D-Slicer software, tumor lesions were manually delineated slice by slice on preoperative non-contrast-enhanced (NCE) CT, arterial phase (AP), and portal venous phase (PVP) images to generate volumetric regions of interest (VOIs). Radiomic features were subsequently extracted from these VOIs. LASSO Cox regression analysis was employed for dimensionality reduction and feature selection, culminating in the construction of a radiomic signature (Radscore). Cox proportional hazards regression models, including a clinical model, a radiomic model, and a radiomic–clinical model, were subsequently developed for OS prediction. The predictive performance of these models was assessed via the concordance index (C-index) and time–ROC curves. The optimal performance model was further visualized as a nomogram, and its predictive accuracy was evaluated via calibration curves and decision curve analysis (DCA). Finally, the risk factors in the optimal performance model were interpreted via Shapley additive explanations (SHAP). Results: Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses revealed that BCLC stage, the albumin–bilirubin index (ALBI), and the NLR–PLR score were independent predictors of OS after HCC resection. Among these three models, the radiomic–clinical model exhibited the highest predictive performance, with C-indices of 0.789, 0.726, and 0.764 in the training, internal and external validation cohorts, respectively. Furthermore, the time–ROC curves for the radiomic–clinical model showed 1-year and 3-year AUCs of 0.837 and 0.845 in the training cohort, 0.801 and 0.880 in the internal validation cohort, and 0.773 and 0.840 in the external validation cohort. Calibration curves and DCA demonstrated the model’s excellent calibration and clinical applicability. Conclusions: The nomogram combining CECT radiomic features and clinical variables provides an accurate prediction of OS after HCC resection. This model is beneficial for clinicians in developing individualized treatment strategies for patients with HCC.