[Application value of an aMAP score in predicting the occurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic hepatitis B receiving antiviral therapy].

Objective: To evaluate the predictive value of an aMAP score for the occurrence risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) receiving antiviral therapy. Methods: The medical records of 508 CHB patients who started receiving antiviral treatment in the Third Hospital of Hebei Medical University and the Fifth Hospital of Shijiazhuang from January 2001 to November 2021 were retrospectively analyzed. They were divided into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups according to the aMAP, AASL-HCC, PAGE-B, mPAGE-B, and CAMD scoring criteria. At the end of follow-up, they were divided into HCC (33 cases) and non-HCC group (475 cases) according to whether HCC occurred. The occurrence risk factors for HCC were analyzed by univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis. The cumulative incidence of HCC at different time points was estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method and compared by the log-rank method. The HCC prediction performance of the aMAP score was evaluated by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and compared with other scores. The Mann-Whitney U test, or Fisher test, was used to compare the non-normally distributed quantitative data between groups. The χ2 test was used to compare the count data between groups. Results: A total of 33 cases (6.5%) developed HCC during the median follow-up period of 8.7 (6.8-8.9) years. Multivariate analysis showed that age＞50 years (HR=2.804, 95%CI 1.332-5.902; P=0.007) and liver cirrhosis (HR=11.808, 95%CI 4.360-31.976; P<0.001) were independent risk factors for HCC occurrence. The cumulative incidence of HCC defined by the aMAP score at 3 and 5 years was significantly lower in the low-risk group (0, 0) than that in the intermediate-risk group (4.4%, 5.4%) and the high-risk group (10.8%, 18.5%), P<0.001. The aMAP score performed similarly to the AASL-HCC score, mPAGE-B score, and CAMD score [area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.863, 0.900, 0.851, and 0.886, respectively], with P＞0.05 in terms of the 3-year HCC prediction performance; and was equally superior with the PAGE-B score (AUC was 0.732), with P<0.05. The aMAP score was not worse than the AASL-HCC score and CAMD score (AUC was 0.890, 0.894, and 0.882, respectively), with P＞0.05 in terms of the 5-year HCC prediction performance; however, it was significantly superior to the PAGE-B score and mPAGE-B score (AUC was 0.795 and 0.875, respectively), with P<0.05. In addition, the AUC of the aMAP score for predicting HCC occurrence at baseline, 1 year, 2 years, and 3 years of antiviral treatment was＞0.9. Conclusions: The aMAP score can accurately assess the risk of HCC in CHB patients receiving antiviral therapy.