REVIEW OF ILLUSTRATIVE UNITED STATES POPULATION PROJECTION, 1946
出处
期刊:JAMA [American Medical Association] 日期:1948-07-10卷期号:137 (11): 985-985
标识
DOI:10.1001/jama.1948.82890450013021a
摘要
Assuming that low fertility produces a decrease in total population and high mortality decreases the number of aged persons, and the reverse, that high fertility produces an increase in total population and low mortality increases the number of aged persons, estimates of total population one hundred years hence can be obtained. In the report here discussed1population figures for 1945 were projected for the next hundred years. Projections were based on the population of the United States as of July 1, 1945, as estimated by the Bureau of the Census.1 Four proje[ill]tions were made: A assumes a low fertility and high mortality without calculation of immigration (2050 A. D. population—63,521,000); B assumes a high fertility and low mortality. Thi. estimate includes an expected 100,000 immigrants per year (2050 population—372,755,000); C assumes a high fertility and high mortality. Immigration estimates were not included (2050 population— 264,014,000); D assumes a