Decoupling relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in China's provinces from the perspective of resource security

Abstract Fossil energy is the foundation of national economic development due to its ability to affect security and environmental and socioeconomic stability. As the fossil energy supply has become increasingly severe, exploring the decoupling relationship between fossil energy consumption and economic growth in each province is critical, and the results will be beneficial for clarifying the current resource security pattern. This paper uses the environmentally extended multiregional input-output model, combined with China's energy consumption data in 2002, 2007 and 2012, to calculate energy consumption based on various energy sources from the production and consumption sides in China's 30 provinces. Additionally, the Tapio decoupling model is used to measure the decoupling situation between the energy consumption and economic growth of each province from both sides. (1) From 2002-2012, the total energy consumption of the production and consumption sides in China showed an annually increasing tendency, and the structural contradiction of energy security remained acute. (2) The decoupling relationship between total energy and economic growth in developed regions is often overestimated, while most of the central and western regions are relatively backward in this state. (3) In 2007–2012, the decoupling states of coal and oil on both sides are significantly better than those in 2002–2007. With the contribution of coal and oil consumption to economic growth continuing to decline, the decoupling states between natural gas consumption and economic growth in most provinces are strongly negative, and economic growth in these regions increasingly depends on natural gas. Our study can help to strengthen the understanding of the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth both on the production side and the consumption side from the perspective of the decoupling states of different energy sources. This paper recommends that China strengthen its sustainable energy output, effectively transform its energy-consuming structure, and promote economic development policies according to local conditions.