Phylogeny and Climate Change–Driven Distribution Dynamics of Keteleeria

ABSTRACT Aim Keteleeria , a relict genus of the Pinaceae family, flourished before the Quaternary ice age but has since experienced a significant decline, with many of its species now critically endangered and classified as key protected species. However, the phylogenetic relationships, taxonomic status, and biogeographic history of Keteleeria remain incompletely understood, posing significant challenges for its conservation and genetic improvement efforts. Here, we reconstruct the first molecular phylogeny of Keteleeria . Location China. Methods In this study, we applied genotyping‐by‐sequencing (GBS) technology to sequence 13 taxa of Keteleeria , with Abies and Cedrus as outgroups. Results A robust phylogenetic tree of Keteleeria was constructed, revealing six clades and resolving the evolutionary relationships of nearly all the taxa. Estimation of the divergence time and reconstruction of the ancestral area indicate that extant Keteleeria originated on the Yunnan–Kweichow Plateau during the Late Cretaceous and underwent multiple dispersal events throughout their evolutionary history. Predictive modelling of Keteleeria distribution dynamics revealed that its range during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) was broader than that during the Last Interglacial (LIG). Under future climate warming scenarios, its highly suitable habitat is projected to significantly decrease. In particular, under the RCP8.5 scenario, the area of highly suitable habitats will experience the most significant reduction. Temperature, rather than precipitation, was identified as the dominant factor shaping the patterns of Keteleeria distribution. Main Conclusions We constructed a robust phylogenetic tree, resolving the evolutionary relationships of nearly all the taxa. The results indicate that the evolutionary history of Keteleeria is complex; Keteleeria originated on the Yunnan–Kweichow Plateau during the Late Cretaceous and underwent multiple dispersal events. By predicting the dynamics of the Keteleeria distribution, we found that under future climate warming scenarios, its highly suitable habitat is projected to significantly decrease. This study provides important insights into the taxonomy of Keteleeria , establishes a theoretical foundation for a deeper understanding of its evolutionary history, and offers theoretical support for developing effective conservation strategies to address the impacts of climate change.