The epidemiology and burden of global osteoarthritis: a systematic analysis based on the Global Burden of Disease database

JOURNAL/agad/04.03/02274129-990000000-00012/figure1/v/2025-07-29T163539Z/r/image-tiff Osteoarthritis, a degenerative disorder characterized by progressive articular cartilage degradation, not only induces joint pain, stiffness, functional impairment, and deformity but also significantly elevates the risk of cardiovascular events, deep vein thrombosis, and hip fractures, substantially compromising patients’ quality of life. With increasing global population aging, osteoarthritis has emerged as a major public health concern worldwide. Although studies have been conducted to explore the epidemiological characteristics of osteoarthritis, systematic analyses addressing regional, age, and sex differences on a global scale are still lacking. Therefore, this study integrated multidimensional epidemiological data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database to assess the global prevalence and burden of osteoarthritis (as measured by disability-adjusted life-years) and to analyze the prevalence and burden of osteoarthritis types in different age groups and sexes. Additionally, risk factors associated with osteoarthritis were identified through risk analysis. The global disease burden of osteoarthritis and its trend by 2035 were analyzed and predicted by the Bayesian age–period–cohort model. The results of the present study revealed significant regional differences in the prevalence of osteoarthritis and disability-adjusted life years, which increased significantly with age, especially in the middle-aged and older age groups. In addition, sex differences were an important factor, with a significantly greater prevalence in women than in men. Further risk factor analysis revealed that metabolic factors and high body mass index are important risk factors for the development of osteoarthritis and its health burden, especially when the body mass index is outside the normal range. Bayesian age-period-cohort modeling projections indicate that the global osteoarthritis prevalence may surpass 12,000 cases per 100,000 people by 2035. This global burden of disease analysis provides crucial insights into the epidemiological trajectory of osteoarthritis, highlighting the critical role of population aging, obesity epidemics, and metabolic syndrome in driving disease burden. These findings suggest that greater attention should be given to these factors in the development of public health policies and individualized intervention strategies to effectively reduce the health burden of osteoarthritis, slow the onset and progression of the disease, and improve the quality of life of the population.