Reliability Analysis of Failure Threshold Value with Uncertain Liu Process

In this paper, a reliability model with uncertain failure threshold is proposed. The failure threshold is an uncertain process that changes with time, humidity, temperature and other factors. In order to describe its dynamic change process, the failure threshold is established by the uncertain Liu process. In a traditional competitive failure model, the failure mechanism mainly consists of two parts, cumulative wear and overload. The thresholds of soft failure and hard failure are modeled for different uncertain Liu processes. Under two different shock models, the belief reliability and mean time to failure of the system is calculated. Taking gas-insulated substation (GIS) as an example, the effect of parameters on belief reliability is analyzed, and the reliability under Liu process threshold and constants threshold is compared, which shows the validity of the prosed model.