Impact of the National Nursing Development Plan on nursing human resources in China: An interrupted time series analysis for 1978–2021

Shortages of nurses and unequal distribution of nursing staff have been huge challenges for global health services.The aim of our study was to evaluate the impact of the National Nursing Development Plan on nursing human resources in China.An interrupted time series design was used in this study. The data for this study were extracted from the National Health Statistics Yearbook from 1978 to 2021. The Ministry of Health issued the National Nursing Development Plan (2005-2010) in July 2005. Subsequently, the strategic plan was issued every 5 years: the National Nursing Development Plan (2011-2015), the National Nursing Development Plan (2016-2020), and the National Nursing Development Plan (2021-2025). This study used five indicators including 1) the number of registered nurses (RNs) in China, 2) the number of RNs per 1000 population in China, 3) the proportion of RNs in health technical personnel in China, 4) the doctor-nurse ratio and 5) the number of nurses working in primary medical institutions to evaluate the changing trend of nursing human resources in China from 1978 to 2021.Interrupted time series analysis showed that after the implementation of the National Nursing Development Plan (2005-2010), the building of nurses in China was gradually strengthening, and the number of RNs in China increased by 0.198 million per year (95%CI 0.174-0.223; P < 0.001); the number of RNs per 1000 population (Coefficient = 0.139; 95%CI 0.123-0.154; P < 0.001); the proportion of RNs in the total number of health professionals in China has increased from 29.6 % to 44.6 % (Coefficient = 0.010; 95%CI 0.009-0.010; P < 0.001); in China, the doctor-nurse ratio increased by 0.024 (95%CI 0.019-0.029; P < 0.001). In 2021, the number of RNs working in primary medical institutions increased by approximately 0.86 million compared with that in 2005, and the proportion of RNs in the country increased by 1.4 %. The development of nurses is especially tilted to the primary level to meet the health and nursing needs of the primary level.The implementation of the National Nursing Development Plan has greatly expanded the scale of nursing human resources in China and significantly optimized the efficiency of allocation. The implementation of the National Nursing Development Plan (2011-2015) and the National Nursing Development Plan (2016-2020) well continued the strategic plan from 2005 to 2010, further expanded the nursing workforce and further optimized the allocation efficiency.The implementation of the National Nursing Development Plan has greatly expanded the scale of nursing human resources in China and significantly optimized the efficiency of allocation.