干旱
气候变化
气候学
气候模式
地理
干旱指数
环境科学
自然地理学
地质学
海洋学
古生物学
作者
Richard Seager,Mingfang Ting,Isaac M. Held,Yochanan Kushnir,Jian Lu,Gabriel A. Vecchi,Huei-Ping Huang,Nili Harnik,Ants Leetmaa,Ngar Cheung Lau,Cuihua Li,Jennifer Velez,Naomi H. Naik
出处
期刊:Science
[American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)]
日期:2007-05-25
卷期号:316 (5828): 1181-1184
被引量:1655
标识
DOI:10.1126/science.1139601
摘要
How anthropogenic climate change will affect hydroclimate in the arid regions of southwestern North America has implications for the allocation of water resources and the course of regional development. Here we show that there is a broad consensus among climate models that this region will dry in the 21st century and that the transition to a more arid climate should already be under way. If these models are correct, the levels of aridity of the recent multiyear drought or the Dust Bowl and the 1950s droughts will become the new climatology of the American Southwest within a time frame of years to decades.
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