Impacts of land use/land cover changes on ecosystem services in ecologically fragile regions

High-density human activities have rapidly changed the pattern of urban land use/land cover (LULC), affecting the supply of urban ecosystem services (ESs). This poses a challenge to the balance of urban development and ecological protection, which may be more serious in ecologically fragile regions. This study identified key LULC change (LULCC) impacts on ESs in Ordos, an ecologically fragile region in Northwest China. The urbanization process of Ordos will continue in 2030 under the business-as-usual scenario due to its strategic positioning in the National Energy Base of China. The future LULC simulation results showed that developed land in eastern Ordos will continue to expand in 2030, and more forest and grassland will appear in western Ordos as a result of ecological restoration. The results of the InVEST model in calculating four important ESs showed that the ES supply in the densely populated areas (eastern Ordos) has declined, and more attention must be given to natural vegetation protection in the urbanization process. Although carbon storage in the western region has increased due to afforestation, this also reduces the water yield supply, which may exacerbate the water shortage in Ordos. Supported by this framework, more sustainable urban land use management can be undertaken to balance the conflict between ecological protection and urbanization. This will contribute to regional ecological health and sustainable urban development.