Transmission dynamics of a periodic multipatch brucellosis model: Inner Mongolia and Liaoning Province as cases

Brucellosis is a zoonotic disease and remains a significant global public health challenge. Nevertheless, large-scale breeding of sheep and frequent sheep transport significantly contribute to the spatial dissemination and inter-herd transmission of brucellosis, particularly at pastoral regions where lax quarantine measures or inadequate transport conditions may facilitate cross-regional spread of brucellosis. To analyze the epidemiological effects of sheep migration, we develop a mechanism-driven mathematic model incorporating periodic components to characterize the coupling between sheep dispersal and seasonal fluctuations. The existence and global stability of periodic solutions are rigorously established through the theoretical framework of monotone dynamical systems. The monthly surveillance data about human brucellosis cases of Inner Mongolia and Liaoning Province during 2017–2020 period are simulated, and the basic reproduction numbers for brucellosis transmission are evaluated as 1.25, 1.15, respectively. The findings suggest that: (1) An elevated dispersal rate from Inner Mongolia to Liaoning Province would exacerbate the brucellosis epidemic in Liaoning Province. Conversely, an increased dispersal rate in the reverse direction from Liaoning to Inner Mongolia would mitigate the epidemic intensity of Liaoning Province. (2) Implementing comprehensive public health education programs, enhancing environmental disinfection and expanding surveillance coverage could effectively control brucellosis epidemics. (3) The basic reproduction numbers will be reduced below the critical threshold of 1 in both regions through either an 18% increase in public health education intensity in Inner Mongolia coupled with 16% increase in Liaoning Province, or a 0.8-unit enhancement in disinfection frequency in Inner Mongolia combined with 0.6-unit of Liaoning Province. The research findings could offer a novel perspective on the transmission mechanisms and epidemiological characteristics of brucellosis.