Predicting the potential habitat suitability of Saussurea species in China under future climate scenarios using the optimized Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model

The Saussurea species, renowned for its biodiversity and medicinal significance in high-elevation regions, faces endangerment due to climate change and human activities. Despite this, conservation research on Saussurea has been limited. To fill the knowledge gap, this study employed the optimized MaxEnt model to simulate Saussurea's habitat suitability and analyze key environmental factors influencing its distribution. Additionally, considering the sensitivity of Saussurea habitats to climate change, this research also simulated the changes in suitable habitat and distribution centroid shifts of Saussurea under different climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585) for the periods 2040s, 2060s, 2080s and 2100s. Findings indicated that Saussurea's suitable habitat was primarily located in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, notably within the Himalayas and Hengduan Mountains. The areas of extremely and moderately suitable habitats were 1.106 × 10⁵ km 2 and 3.436 × 10⁵ km 2 , respectively. Elevation, Isothermality (Bio3), and Temperature Annual Range (Bio7) were identified as the main environmental factors. Future projections suggest severe habitat fragmentation and a decrease in suitable habitat areas. By 2100, the total area of suitable Saussurea habitat will decrease under the SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585 scenarios to 8.658 × 10⁵ km 2 , 6.971 × 10⁵ km 2 , 5.811 × 10⁵ km 2 , and 5.979 × 10⁵ km 2 , respectively. Additionally, a slight southeastward shift in the distribution centroid was observed. This study is expected to provide guidance for the conservation of Saussurea and alpine plant biodiversity. This study employs an optimized MaxEnt model to simulate the future distribution of Saussurea species under various SSP scenarios, identifying key environmental factors and analyzing shifts in their distribution centroid. • Evaluating the current and future suitable habitats for Saussurea species under climate change. • Optimized parameters and selected the best MaxEnt model from 1160 candidates for accuracy. • Simulated Saussurea distribution from 2020 to 2100 under four SSP scenarios, identifying key factors. • Saussurea habitats in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau face severe fragmentation and decline under SSPs. • Provides a basis for Saussurea conservation, with implications for alpine plants and biodiversity.