Potential ecological risk assessment of land use structure based on MCCA model: A case study in Yangtze River Delta Region, China

Since land resources are essential to human survival, the over-exploitation and unreasonable utilization of land threatens the sustainability of human society. This paper uses the well-developed Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region as a case study, and adopts an improved Mixed-cell Cellular Automata Model (MCCA) to simulate the potential utilization of land resources in 2025 and 2035. Then, the paper attempts to construct a comprehensive assessment system that integrates multiple indicators, and evaluates regional risk changes at a micro patch-cell level and a macro city. The results suggest that (1) The utilization of land resources varies greatly in the YRD region from 2020 to 2035. While Shanghai will continue to make use of available built up land resources, the majority of land resources in Jiangsu Province will shift away from being agricultural in nature. Since forests make up a majority of the land resources in Zhejiang Province, and forests and agricultural land make up a majority of land resources in Anhui Province, the change in land utilization in these two provinces will be more gradual. (2) Changes in land utilization are also likely to cause ecological risks. The risk level in Shanghai is the highest, it is relatively high in Zhejiang but is likely to decrease, relatively low in Jiangsu but likely to increase, and Anhui has the lowest risk level. (3) The K-means clustering method obtained three ecological risk zones of the YRD, and the overall risk level is the highest in the central-eastern zoning ③, followed by the southern zoning ②, and the lowest in the northern zoning ①. Furthermore, the agglomeration pattern of the three zones transforms from L-L to H-H. (4) This paper puts forward corresponding suggestions and countermeasures for four aspects, including the strengthening of agricultural land protection, the regulation of built-up land use expansion, the coordination of an all-rounded approach of urban development, and the fostering of regional sustainable development, in hopes of optimizing land usage and alleviating ecological risk levels. Scientific estimations of potential ecological risks are critical to avoiding future ecological crises thus contributing to more sustainability.