Modeling Evacuation of a Transport System: Application of a Multimodal Mesoscopic Dynamic Traffic Assignment Model

In this paper, the analysis of a transportation system under emergency conditions due to hazardous events is considered. To assess the effects on the analyzed transport network, an extension to a mesoscopic dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) model was developed to determine quantitative indicators for estimating the exposure component of the total risk incurred by the transport networks in an area. In particular, a new version that is able to allow for multimodal networks and to consider network reliability was introduced. To give a practical example of the proposed model, it has been applied to two real networks, studying evacuation in the hypothesis that in the event of a calamity the population in the area follows the instructions proposed by the municipal civil protection plan. The work shows how adequate quantitative methodologies based on a dynamic approach can be a useful tool to support the process of evacuation planning at several scales.