Temporal Dynamics of the Goose Habitat in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River

The middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River are the most important areas for geese to overwinter in the East Asian–Australasian Flyway, where about 180,000 geese fly to overwinter each year. Over the past 20 years, the region has experienced extensive and rapid land cover changes that may have exceeded the adaptability of geese, and have led to suitable goose habitat area loss, thereby, reducing the stability of the geese population. In order to identify the suitable goose habitat areas in this region, based on ensemble modeling and satellite tracking data, in this study, we simulated the spatial distribution changes in the suitable goose habitat areas over the past 20 years. The results showed that the suitable goose habitat areas had suffered varying degrees of loss, among which, the lesser white-fronted goose had the greatest suitable goose habitat area loss of over 50%. Moreover, we found that wetlands, lakes, and floodplains were the key components of suitable goose habitat areas, and the categories (land use) showed significant differences in different periods (p < 0.01). This may be one of the main reasons for the decrease in suitable goose habitat areas. The results of this study provide an important reference for the adaptive management and protection of geese in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.