Evaluation of biomarkers of cell cycle arrest and inflammation in prediction of dialysis or recovery after kidney transplantation

Early prediction of delayed graft function (DGF) after kidney transplantation would facilitate patient management. Cell cycle arrest and inflammation are implicated in the pathogenesis of DGF. We assessed the utility of two novel acute kidney injury (AKI) biomarkers, urinary tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinases-2 (TIMP-2) and insulin-like growth factor-binding protein 7 (IGFBP7), and five inflammatory markers to predict DGF following deceased-donor kidney transplantation. Serial urine concentrations of TIMP-2 and IGFBP7 were measured immediately after transplantation in 56 recipients along with vascular endothelial growth factor-A (VEGF-A), macrophage migration inhibitory factor (MIF), monocyte chemotactic protein-1 (MCP-1), trefoil factor 3 (TFF3) and chemokine (C-X-C) ligand 16 (CXCL16). Delayed graft function (DGF) was defined as requirement for dialysis within 7 days. Integrated discrimination improvement analysis was used to evaluate whether these biomarkers enhanced prediction of DGF independently of a validated clinical risk prediction model. DGF occurred in 22 patients (39%). At 4 h after kidney reperfusion, the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) for VEGF-A was good (AUC > 0.80); for TIMP-2, IGFBP7 and [TIMP-2] × [IGFBP7] fair (AUCs 0.70-0.79); and for MIF, MCP-1, TFF3 and CXCL16 poor (AUC < 0.70). Only TIMP-2 and VEGF significantly enhanced the DGF prediction at 4 and 12 h. The cell cycle arrest marker urinary TIMP-2 and the inflammatory biomarker VEGF-A are potentially useful adjuncts to clinical data for early prediction of DGF.