Spatiotemporal evolution pattern and simulation of the coupling of carbon productivity and land development in the Yangtze River Delta, China

It is important to explore the spatiotemporal characteristics of the coupling of carbon productivity (CP) and the land development degree (LD) in Chinese counties and to simulate the development trend of their collaborative evolution. In this study, first, the spatiotemporal evolution patterns of the regional CP and LD in the Yangtze River Delta from 2003 to 2017 were analyzed. Then, the coupling coordination model and kernel density estimation method were used to reveal their coupling characteristics. Finally, two types of Markov transition matrices were constructed to empirically analyze the dynamic change rule of their coordinated development, and their long-term evolution trends were simulated under different neighborhood characteristics. The results revealed that the CP initially decreased and then rapidly increased from 2003 to 2017, while the LD continuously decreased from 13.2 thousand people/km2 in 2003 to 10.9 thousand people/km2 in 2017. The coupling coordination degree (CCD) between the CP and LD exhibited a two-stage decline, followed by a rise over the past 15 years, with the CCD level shifting downward in 19.68% of the counties and upward in 19.05% of the counties. The transition of the CCD level had a significant spatial spillover effect. If adjacent to counties with a low CCD for a long period of time, the proportion of the counties with a low CCD would increase to 61.65%, while long-term neighboring counties with a high CCD would eventually stabilize the percentage of counties with a high CCD at 61.83%. Incorporating the spatial spillover effect into low-carbon land management at the county level can offer scientific direction for advancing low-carbon land development.