牛鞭效应
供应链
背景(考古学)
信息共享
上游(联网)
订单(交换)
经济
微观经济学
下游(制造业)
价值(数学)
计量经济学
供应链管理
业务
计算机科学
营销
运营管理
古生物学
万维网
机器学习
生物
计算机网络
财务
作者
Rachel Croson,Karen Donohue
出处
期刊:Management Science
[Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences]
日期:2006-03-01
卷期号:52 (3): 323-336
被引量:489
标识
DOI:10.1287/mnsc.1050.0436
摘要
The tendency of orders to increase in variability as one moves up a supply chain is commonly known as the bullwhip effect. We study this phenomenon from a behavioral perspective in the context of a simple, serial, supply chain subject to information lags and stochastic demand. We conduct two experiments on two different sets of participants. In the first, we find the bullwhip effect still exists when normal operational causes (e.g., batching, price fluctuations, demand estimation, etc.) are removed. The persistence of the bullwhip effect is explained to some extent by evidence that decision makers consistently underweight the supply line when making order decisions. In the second experiment, we find that the bullwhip, and the underlying tendency of underweighting, remains when information on inventory levels is shared. However, we observe that inventory information helps somewhat to alleviate the bullwhip effect by helping upstream chain members better anticipate and prepare for fluctuations in inventory needs downstream. These experimental results support the theoretically suggested notion that upstream chain members stand to gain the most from information-sharing initiatives.
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