Load forecasting based on dynamic adaptive and adversarial graph convolutional networks

With the widespread integration of renewable energy sources into the power system and the diversification and complexity of the energy consumption patterns, which makes it more difficult to maintain a source-load balance of the power system. In the power systems, the results of the power load forecasting can be used for generator scheduling and load distribution. Therefore, the accurate power load forecasting is critical to operation of the power system. In this paper, a load forecasting model based on a dynamic adaptive and adversarial graph convolutional network (DAAGCN) is proposed, which combines a dynamic adaptive graph generation network (DAGG) and a generative adversarial network (GAN). Firstly, DAGG utilizes integrated time-varying embedding and node embedding to generate dynamic adaptive graphs for inferring spatial–temporal dependencies between different temporal loads. Second, the underlying spatial–temporal prediction model is adversarial trained based on the idea of a zero-sum game. The module parameters are optimized using the L1 loss and the adversarial training loss together as the training objectives of the model. Finally, short-term forecasting of electricity loads was performed on the datasets using DAAGCN, and the results were compared with several other forecasting modules.