Insights into drug development with quantitative systems pharmacology: A prospective case study of uncovering hyperkalemia risk in diabetic nephropathy with virtual clinical trials

The quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) approach is widely applied to address various essential questions in drug discovery and development, such as identification of the mechanism of action of a therapeutic agent, patient stratification, and the mechanistic understanding of the progression of disease. In this review article, we show the current landscape of the application of QSP modeling using a survey of QSP publications over 10 years from 2013 to 2022. We also present a use case for the risk assessment of hyperkalemia in patients with diabetic nephropathy treated with mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists (MRAs, renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system inhibitors), as a prospective simulation of late clinical development. A QSP model for generating virtual patients with diabetic nephropathy was used to quantitatively assess that the nonsteroidal MRAs, finerenone and apararenone, have a lower risk of hyperkalemia than the steroidal MRA, eplerenone. Prospective simulation studies using a QSP model are useful to prioritize pharmaceutical candidates in clinical development and validate mechanism-based pharmacological concepts related to the risk-benefit, before conducting large-scale clinical trials.