Impacts of Wind Power Forecast Error in the Finnish Electricity Market in 2030

This study investigates the impacts of day-ahead wind power forecast errors on the Nordic electricity market in 2030, with a focus on Finland's bidding zone. The increasing share of variable renewable energy generation in the Nordic power system is expected to increase the errors between the forecasted and realized power generation which increases the demand for electricity balancing markets. Using a two-stage model in PLEXOS, the study simulates the day-ahead and balancing power markets of the entire Nordic and Baltic area, analyzing the volume of balancing power required and the technologies providing it. The results show that the largest balancing power will be provided with hydropower and cross-border interconnections, while nuclear, combined heat and power, and demand-side response will play supplementary roles.