The Surprising Resilience of the Russian War Economy

The war in Ukraine was expected to result in severe consequences for the Russian economy, with international sanctions reversing three decades of integration into the global economy. Yet Russian economic performance has confounded those expectations and fueled the war effort, even as the formidable Russian military initially faltered. Russia’s market core has provided flexibility, while trade with China and the Global South has replaced closed Western channels. But shifting much of the country’s productive capacity into the military sector may prove unsustainable.