Spatio‐Temporal Changes in Daily Extreme Precipitation in Turkey

ABSTRACT This study analyses annual and seasonal trends in daily extreme precipitation across Turkey over the 74‐year period 1950–2023, employing six indices and utilising daily precipitation data recorded in 80 meteorological stations. Trends were calculated using the Mann–Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator. Results provide evidence that large parts of Turkey are experiencing more severe daily extreme precipitation. Analysis of annual extreme precipitation trends in Turkey over the past 74 years reveals a distinct asymmetry: while the frequency of extreme events (R95N) shows limited statistically significant nationwide increases (at 7.5% of stations), both magnitude (R95AM) and contribution to annual totals (R95%) exhibit more widespread statistically significant upward trends (at 12.5% and 18.8% of stations, respectively). This intensification is regionally pronounced, notably in the Black Sea region (R95AM 10.28 mm/decade) and Continental Eastern Anatolian region (R95% 1.33%/decade). Seasonally, summer demonstrates the strongest statistically significant upward trends in both frequency (21.3% of stations) and magnitude (18.8% of stations), with notable regional signals in the Mediterranean Transition region (R95N 0.33 days/decade; R95AM 2.85 mm/decade). Autumn displays the strongest increase in contribution (R95% significant at 16.3% stations), particularly prominent in the Continental Central Anatolia region (2.21%/decade). Temporal analyses consistently point towards an intensification of daily extreme precipitation in the last two decades. This observed change in daily extreme precipitation in Turkey increases the risk of flash floods, landslides, damage to agriculture and infrastructure and the possibility of loss of life, especially in urban areas.