AHP-Entropy Integrated Evaluation Model for Olympic Sports Discipline Selection: Enhancing Decision-Making with Multi-Criteria Analysis

The Olympic Games, as the world's most prominent multi-sport event, face evolving challenges in selecting sports disciplines and events (SDEs) that align with its values and global trends. This study proposes a comprehensive evaluation model to assist the International Olympic Committee (IOC) in decision-making by integrating six core criteria: Popularity and Accessibility, Gender Equity, Sustainability, Inclusivity, Relevance and Innovation, and Safety and Fair Play. Utilizing the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) for subjective weighting and the Entropy Weight Method for objective weighting, the model calculates aggregated indicator weights and quantifies the alignment of SDEs with Olympic standards. Validation through historical and recent SDEs (e.g., swimming, skateboarding, breaking) demonstrates the model’s reliability, with high-scoring sports reflecting traditional prominence and low-scoring ones aligning with IOC adjustments. Sensitivity analysis confirms robustness, showing minimal impact from weight adjustments. The model predicts potential inclusions for future Olympics, such as croquet, karate, and equestrian driving, while identifying e-sports as a rising candidate. This framework provides a scientific, data-driven tool for optimizing Olympic programs and enhancing global participation.