Influence of anthropogenic nitrogen inputs and legacy nitrogen change on riverine nitrogen export in areas with high agricultural activity

Increased riverine nitrogen (N) concentrations due to human activities is one of the leading causes of water quality decline, worldwide. Therefore, quantitative information about the N exported from watershed to the river (TN exports) is essential for defining N pollution control practices. This paper evaluated the changes in net anthropogenic N inputs (NANI) and the N stored in land ecosystems (legacy N) in the Jianghan Plain (JHP) from 1990 to 2019 and their impacts on TN exports. Moreover, an empirical model was developed to estimate TN exports, trace its source, and predict its future variations in 2020–2035 under different scenarios. According to the results, NANI exhibited a rise-decrease-rise-decrease M-shaped trend, with N fertilizer application being the dominant driver for NANI change. In terms of the NANI components, non-point-source was the primary N input form (96%). Noteworthy is that the correlation between NANI and TN exports became weaker over time, and large differences in changing trends were observed after 2014. A likely cause for this abnormal trend was that the accumulation of N surplus in soil led to N saturation in agricultural areas. Legacy N was also an important source of TN exports. However, the contribution of legacy N has rarely been considered when defining N pollution control strategies. An empirical model, incorporating legacy N, agricultural irrigation water use, and cropland area ratio, was developed. Based on this model, legacy N contributed a large proportion (15–31%). Furthermore, the results of future predictions indicated that legacy N had a larger impact on future TN exports changes compared to other factors, and increased irrigation water would increase rather than decrease TN exports. Therefore, an integrated N management strategy considering the impact of NANI, legacy N, and irrigation water use is crucial to control N pollution in areas with intensive agriculture.