[Progress in research of burden of disease attributed to population ageing].

Objective: To summarize recent progress in research of burden of disease attributed to population ageing and provide reference for relevant research in the future. Methods: We conducted a systematic literature review of quantitative studies about the impact of population ageing on burden of disease published from 2009 to 2019 according to the inclusion and exclusion criteria through PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, Cochrane Library, Wangfang database and China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) databases and extracted basic information and key results of the searched literature. Results: A total of 65 studies were included in the analysis, in which 29 (44.6%) studies used death number or mortality rate as outcome measures, 43 (66.2%) studies focused on a single country, such as China, United Kingdom and United States, 39 (60.0%) studies quantified the impact of population ageing on single disease, such as diabetes, lung cancer and coronary heart disease, 44 (67.7%) studies used decomposition methods to quantify the impact of population ageing, and 10 (15.4%) studies evaluated the effect of interventions on alleviating the impact of population ageing. Most studies found that population ageing increased the burden of some diseases, such as cancer, cardiovascular disease and dementia, while a few studies reported that population ageing decreased the burden of some diseases, such as neonatal disease and malaria. Various decomposition methods were adopted in 65 included studies, but several common methods were sensitive to the preconditions that were assumed, the decomposition order of three factors (population size, age structure, and age-specific rate) and the choice of control group, resulting incomparable and unstable results. Conclusions: The published decomposition studies adopted various methods and only evaluated the impact of population ageing in very limited countries and for several diseases. Therefore, a systematic evaluation using robust decomposition method is very necessary to evaluate the impact of population aging on disease burden across countries and diseases.目的： 概括人口老龄化所致健康影响研究的最新进展，为未来开展相关研究提供参考。 方法： 系统检索PubMed、Web of Science、Embase、Cochrane Library、中国知网和万方数据2009-2019年发表的文献。按纳入和排除标准筛选文献，并提取基本信息和主要研究结果。 结果： 本研究共纳入符合要求的文献65篇。44.6%的已发表文献采用死亡数/率作为健康效应评估指标；66.2%的文献集中于单一国家，如：中国、英国和美国等；60.0%的文献研究了老龄化对单一疾病的健康影响，如：糖尿病、肺癌和冠心病等；67.7%的文献采用分解法量化人口老龄化的健康效应；15.4%的文献模拟了干预措施对平衡人口老龄化影响的效果。大多数研究发现人口老龄化导致一些疾病的负担增加，如：癌症、心血管和痴呆等，但有研究报道人口老龄化导致新生儿病、疟疾等疾病的负担减少。发表文献采用的归因方法不尽一致。多个常用方法对研究假设、归因顺序和对照组的选择敏感，造成研究结果缺乏可比性和稳定性。 结论： 目前缺乏针对全球和不同疾病的人口老龄化健康效应的系统研究。既往归因研究所采用方法不尽相同，研究结果受所采用方法的局限性影响，造成归因结果不稳定。建议未来采用稳定的人口老龄化健康效应归因方法对人口老龄化所致的全球疾病负担开展系统研究。.