Effect of anatomical liver resection on early postoperative recurrence in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma assessed based on a nomogram: a single-center study in China

Introduction We aimed to investigate risk factors for early postoperative recurrence in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and determine the effect of surgical methods on early recurrence to facilitate predicting the risk of early postoperative recurrence in such patients and the selection of appropriate treatment methods. Methods We retrospectively analyzed clinical data concerning 428 patients with HCC who had undergone radical surgery at Mianyang Central Hospital between January 2015 and August 2022. Relevant routine preoperative auxiliary examinations and regular postoperative telephone or outpatient follow-ups were performed to identify early postoperative recurrence. Risk factors were screened, and predictive models were constructed, including patients’ preoperative ancillary tests, intra- and postoperative complications, and pathology tests in relation to early recurrence. The risk of recurrence was estimated for each patient based on a prediction model, and patients were categorized into low- and high-risk recurrence groups. The effect of anatomical liver resection (AR) on early postoperative recurrence in patients with HCC in the two groups was assessed using survival analysis. Results In total, 353 study patients were included. Multifactorial logistic regression analysis findings suggested that tumor diameter (≥5/<5 cm, odds ratio [OR] 2.357, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.368–4.059; P = 0.002), alpha fetoprotein (≥400/<400 ng/L, OR 2.525, 95% CI 1.334–4.780; P = 0.004), tumor number (≥2/<2, OR 2.213, 95% CI 1.147–4.270; P = 0.018), microvascular invasion (positive/negative, OR 3.230, 95% CI 1.880–5.551; P < 0.001), vascular invasion (positive/negative, OR 4.472, 95% CI 1.395–14.332; P = 0.012), and alkaline phosphatase level (>125/≤125 U/L, OR 2.202, 95% CI 1.162–4.173; P = 0.016) were risk factors for early recurrence following radical HCC surgery. Model validation and evaluation showed that the area under the curve was 0.813. Hosmer-Lemeshow test results ( X 2 = 1.225, P = 0.996 > 0.05), results from bootstrap self-replicated sampling of 1,000 samples, and decision curve analysis showed that the model also discriminated well, with potentially good clinical utility. Using this model, patients were stratified into low- and high-risk recurrence groups. One-year disease-free survival was compared between the two groups with different surgical approaches. Both groups benefited from AR in terms of prevention of early postoperative recurrence, with AR benefits being more pronounced and intraoperative bleeding less likely in the high-risk recurrence group. Discussion With appropriate surgical techniques and with tumors being realistically amenable to R0 resection, AR is a potentially useful surgical procedure for preventing early recurrence after radical surgery in patients with HCC.