Alliance Transitions and Great Power War

Recent studies of the power transition and hegemonic stability theory have focused on the power distribution, uneven growth of power, and the transition of power among great powers in the international system as main causes of major war. This paper extends and elaborates the power transition theory, applying the power equality argument to great powers and their alliance structure and adding a satisfaction index, applied at the state level. The theoretical development and the empirical findings in this essay suggest that the equality of power between the two great powers, after taking into account the effects of alliances, has a substantial impact on the outbreak of major wars: especially that major war is most likely when the power of the dissatisfied challenger, after considering its allies' support, approximates the power of the dominant nation and its allies who support the existing international order.