Immune checkpoint blocking impact and nomogram prediction of COVID-19 inactivated vaccine seroconversion in patients with cancer: a propensity-score matched analysis

Background Patients with cancer on active immune checkpoint inhibitors therapy were recommended to seek prophylaxis from COVID-19 by vaccination. There have been few reports to date to discuss the impact of progression cell death-1 blockers (PD-1B) on immune or vaccine-related outcomes, and what risk factors that contribute to the serological status remains to be elucidated. The study aims to find the impact of PD-1B on vaccination outcome and investigate other potential risk factors associated with the risk of seroconversion failure. Methods Patients with active cancer treatment were retrospectively enrolled to investigate the interaction effects between PD-1B and vaccination. Through propensity score matching of demographic and clinical features, the seroconversion rates and immune/vaccination-related adverse events (irAE and vrAE) were compared in a head-to-head manner. Then, a nomogram predicting the failure risk was developed with variables significant in multivariate regression analysis and validated in an independent cohort. Results Patients (n=454) receiving either PD-1B or COVID-19 vaccination, or both, were matched into three cohorts (vac+/PD-1B+, vac+/PD-1B-, and vac-/PD-1B+, respectively), with a non-concer control group of 206 participants. 68.1% (94/138), 71.3% (117/164), and 80.5% (166/206) were seropositive in vac+/PD-1B+cohort, vac+/PD-1B- cohort, and non-cancer control group, respectively. None of irAE or vrAE was observed to be escalated in PD-1B treatment except for low-grade rash.The vaccinated patients with cancer had a significantly lower rate of seroconversion rates than healthy control. A nomogram was thus built that encompassed age, pathology, and chemotherapy status to predict the seroconversion failure risk, which was validated in an independent cancer cohort of 196 patients. Conclusion Although patients with cancer had a generally decreased rate of seroconversion as compared with the healthy population, the COVID-19 vaccine was generally well tolerated, and seroconversion was not affected in patients receiving PD-1B. A nomogram predicting failure risk was developed, including age, chemotherapy status, pathology types, and rheumatic comorbidity.