Exploring the optimization of spatial patterns for carbon sequestration services based on multi-scenario land use/cover changes in the changchun-Jilin-Tumen region, China

Optimizing the spatial pattern of carbon sequestration services is essential for enhancing regional ecosystem carbon sink capacity and promoting carbon budget equilibrium. This study leveraged land use/cover changes (LUCC), meteorological, ecological, and socio-economic data, integrating the InVEST and PLUS models to quantitatively evaluate changes in carbon sequestration services within three 2035 scenarios: economic development (ED), ecological protection (EP), and natural development (ND). Furthermore, it incorporated a Bayesian belief network (BBN) with decision-making optimization capabilities to pinpoint areas necessitating the optimization of spatial patterns for carbon sequestration services. The research findings reveal: (1) Substantial impacts of land use/cover changes on carbon sequestration services, with the spatial distribution of carbon sequestration capacity closely linked to land use patterns. (2) Considerable variation in carbon storage levels across different Changchun-Jilin-Tumen scenarios, while their spatial distribution patterns remain generally consistent. Over time, a notable declining trend in carbon storage levels by 2035 compared to previous years is observed. Spatially, the eastern and central regions of the study area emerge as high-value carbon storage zones, with the northwestern region exhibiting lower carbon storage values. (3) The three scenarios categorize CSS into ecological conservation zones, ecological buffer zones, construction development zones, and arable land protection areas. Notably, the construction development zones in the western and northwestern parts of the study area urgently require optimization management. Undertaking spatial pattern optimization studies based on the current state of CSS will sustain their sustainable development and assist in future spatial planning, carbon neutrality goals, and ecological restoration in the Changchun-Jilin-Tumen region.