Effect of crises on charisma signaling: A regression discontinuity design

Scholars have investigated the emergence of charismatic leaders in times of crisis. However, results from this research are usually descriptive, suffer from endogeneity bias, or rely on inappropriate causal modeling. Building on exogenous events, we explore the causal effect of crises on charismatic rhetoric and approval ratings of political leaders using regression discontinuity designs. In a reanalysis of Bligh et al. (2004), we find that the rhetoric of President George W. Bush changed after 9/11 to include more references to charismatic themes. We replicate these results using President Francois Hollande reactions to terrorist attacks in 2015 and 2016 (i.e., Charlie Hebdo, Paris, and Nice attacks). Across both studies, we find similar evidence for an upward shift in charismatic rhetoric and approval ratings at the time of crisis. Our findings contribute to the literature on charisma and crisis by showing that the emergence of charisma is not only a follower attributional process but that veritable behavior of leaders can change. Our manuscript also pedagogically re-introduces the regression discontinuity design, a quasi-experimental procedure largely unused in applied leadership and management research.