Spatial correlation between the changes of ecosystem service supply and demand: An ecological zoning approach

Clarifying the spatial and temporal changes in the ecosystem services (ES) supply and demand helps in providing comprehensive supporting information for ecological governance decisions. However, spatial mismatches of the ES supply and demand changes are often overlooked, thereby resulting in the lack of targeted decision-making. In this study, the spatiotemporal variations of ES supply and demand in Guangdong Province during 2000-2015 were quantitatively analyzed at watershed scale. Ecological zoning was conducted on the basis of the temporal changes of ES supply and demand. Spatial correlation of ES supply and demand changes in different zones was further explored. The results showed that, the changes of ES supply and demand showed obvious spatial heterogeneity. The changes in the Pearl River Delta were significant, with ES supply decreasing and ES demand increasing. The ES supply changes were significantly affected by the ES demand changes. All of the ES supply would be significantly affected in the “high supply change–high demand change” zone; grain production, tropical cyclone mitigation, flood mitigation and habitat quality have been significantly affected in the “low supply change–middle demand change” zone; carbon sequestration, landscape recreation, grain production, flood mitigation and habitat quality have been significantly affected in the “low supply change–low demand change” zone. The increase in the land use change may promote the impact of the ES demand changes on the ES supply changes. This study helped in integrating the change of ES supply and demand and its correlation into the ecological protection and restoration system, thus providing a new perspective and approach for a regional sustainable management.