County town shrinkage in China: Identification, spatiotemporal variations and the heterogeneity of influencing factors

Small town shrinkage has become a global social and economic phenomenon. County towns, which are characterized by large numbers, diverse types, important functions and wide distribution, are an indispensable component of small towns in China. The shrinkage of county towns in China is typical and unique in the global urban shrinkage system. Therefore, this study takes county towns in China as the basic unit, uses the rate of population change to identify shrinking towns, and analyzes the spatiotemporal patterns and distribution characteristics of the shrinking towns, from 2010 to 2018. Eleven indicators in six categories were selected, and temporal weighted regression (TWR) and geographically weighted regression (GWR) were used to explore the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of influencing factors. The results show that, during the study period, the number of shrinking towns in China increased. The phenomenon of urban shrinkage was common in seven geographical regions , mainly distributed in Northeast, Northwest, North and Southwest China during the study period. The shrinkage trajectory was dominated by two forms of shrinkage, namely potential shrinkage and segmented shrinkage. Both growing towns and shrinking towns were affected by population agglomeration , economic base, industrial structure, and space development. Traffic and location were unique factors that affected shrinking towns. The results also show that the influencing factors of shrinking towns were not significantly heterogeneous in time, but significantly heterogeneous in space. These findings help us to understand the complexity and diversity of small town shrinkage in China and also provide a reference for planners and decision makers to formulate corresponding governance strategies for shrinking towns in different regions. • Small town shrinkage has become the main component of urban shrinkage. • There are numerous and diverse types of shrinking county towns in China. • Influencing factors between shrinking and growing towns are distinguished. • There are different reasons for shrinking towns in seven geographical regions. • Geographically weighted regression analyzes the spatial heterogeneity of factors.