Impact of future climate change on terrestrial ecosystems in China

Abstract The impact of future climate change on terrestrial ecosystem was projected by the atmospheric‐vegetation interaction model (AVIM2) over China at four warmer levels of 1, 2, 3 and 4 °C. Future climate data were projected by regional climate model from the Hadley Centre under Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) B2 scenario. The results show that, as projected temperature increases, the average net primary productivity (NPP) is likely to decrease in China as a whole. The Tibetan Plateau is the only ecoregion with increasing NPP as the climate becomes warmer. The terrestrial ecosystem NPP in China would be impacted as: 1 °C warmer, favourable or adverse impact on ecosystem would be equivalent with regional variation; 2 °C warmer, slight adverse impact would be significant; 3 °C warmer, moderate adverse impact would take priority and 4 °C warmer, moderate adverse impact regions would increase significantly. But overall, only a small part of the ecosystems are expected to be over moderately impacted. Areas impacted over moderately are likely to be enlarged in the same distributing pattern as temperature increases. The northwest arid region is expected to be the most vulnerable ecoregion. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society