Social‐ecological systems modeling for drought‐food security nexus

Abstract Droughts pose severe threats to social systems, particularly to food security which is one of the priority targets in the UN's sustainable development goals (SDG 2). The drought‐food insecurity nexus entails the complex social‐ecological systems (SES) relationships (e.g., feedback) that underpin food insecurity, leading to disastrous consequence to society. To advance the knowledge on capturing the SES relationships of the drought‐food insecurity nexus, an SES model was employed (first attempt) to simulate these relationships to inform policies on food security in the context of climate change in Bangladesh. Different “what if” scenarios were examined determining the possible future trajectories of the system under socio‐economic and climate scenarios. Findings revealed that (i) with business‐as‐usual scenario, crop production and food security continue to increase at the expense of declining water resources over the simulation period; (ii) temperature changes (3.5–5.7°C) and surface water reduction due to dam and sustained groundwater decline may reduce food security (~55%); (iii) tipping risk increases due to severe reduction of food security when increasing temperature (>3.5°C) is combined with upstream water withdrawal (30%–50%), subsidy reduction (50%–100%), population growth and political instability. These indicate the need for an SES system perspective for increasing crop production and food security, simultaneously ensuring sustainable water resources and climate change adaptation. The model and findings are useful to achieve food security, and other related SDGs (1&6) in the context of climate change in Bangladesh and similar areas (e.g., Kenya), informed by the consequences of plausible alternative futures.